Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 120.118562 138.428437 159.291789 184.972126 215.932363 252.308213 298.656396
2025-12-07 96.291591 119.189219 147.724726 186.424708 238.361888 306.860652 406.107167
2025-12-14 82.800694 107.931806 141.382891 190.214191 261.502182 364.804006 531.773208
2025-12-21 72.327473 98.093800 134.188684 190.054447 277.413071 414.440320 658.122206
2025-12-28 67.629229 95.139849 135.558896 201.701005 312.292363 500.090794 868.857442
2026-01-04 63.200294 91.736711 135.424652 210.509951 343.853880 587.519992 1113.577234
2026-01-11 59.138705 88.227420 134.409904 217.357967 373.029441 677.775278 1399.127783
2026-01-18 54.981107 83.980050 131.492220 220.197355 395.104668 759.776392 1701.373720
2026-01-25 50.938476 79.413720 127.369809 220.028381 411.041139 833.036729 2016.138821
2026-02-01 46.679139 74.013630 121.113095 214.777157 415.320027 881.205271 2286.864190
2026-02-08 42.928281 69.108491 115.160666 209.182475 417.665017 925.410677 2569.672777
2026-02-15 39.721721 64.852211 109.915398 204.217077 420.388808 971.390940 2884.993551
2026-02-22 38.952392 64.960205 112.976060 217.334631 469.265951 1159.575456 3848.350323
2026-03-01 36.935637 62.598851 111.046858 219.477211 492.110444 1283.866746 4677.350685
2026-03-08 35.383835 60.951866 110.322940 224.185762 522.834508 1445.254380 5836.233950
2026-03-15 33.496404 58.487884 107.667471 224.005118 540.400606 1571.704676 6970.123655
2026-03-22 33.083778 58.840690 110.853415 238.281598 602.878852 1886.591894 9629.125537
2026-03-29 32.359013 58.498697 112.515064 249.104423 658.537733 2208.629631 12962.011771
2026-04-05 31.474304 57.747157 113.190789 257.532813 709.456460 2543.579962 17188.391863
2026-04-12 30.287793 56.267351 112.075753 261.031249 745.335042 2835.771559 21853.953320
2026-04-19 28.939872 54.338869 109.738764 260.822999 768.542706 3083.932995 26871.370792
2026-04-26 27.295345 51.657369 105.401896 254.354955 767.573750 3209.108270 30846.306618
2026-05-03 25.753269 49.092354 101.119017 247.472301 763.584110 3318.729681 35105.168423